Wednesday, February 20, 2013

03/01/13 Banlist - How did my predictions turn out?

Hey guys! As promised, it's time to compare my predictions for the March 2013 banlist changes to what ACTUALLY happened. One of the cool things about actually stretching your neck out and doing predictions about what Krazy Konami will do for a new format is when you get to go back afterwards and see what you got right and what you got wrong and learn from it. Since I haven't really published a hardcore, concrete prediction in a long time, I completely forgot about this feeling.
I realized before even writing this post that going back to check your predictions after a list has dropped is both really fun and really depressing (moreso the latter than the former). Life is strange. But let's go ahead and get into it! Refer to the original post in case you need a refresher.

PREDICTION #1: "Wind-Ups might get hit."

VERDICT: Correct! :)

After being the strongest deck of the outgoing format in addition to having caused problems in the preceding one, it was quite obvious that Wind-Ups would suffer some slashes. Unfortunately, since each core card of the modern Wind-Up deck was designed so strongly (or badly; whatever floats your boat), Konami's somewhat weak hits haven't really taken away the deck's ability to OTK or summon Shock Master within one turn. This is why bad card design is such a problem: when the cards cause serious problems, it would take somebody with the true resolve to use the force of law to sufficiently correct them. And as we all know, unfortunately Konami simply does not have that resolve. So currently, the future of this archetype looks all but dead.

PREDICTION #2: "Rescue Rabbit might get hit."

VERDICT: Wrong. ... :(

To be completely honest with you guys, at first I had no idea what happened here. But now that some time has passed, my best guess as to why this didn't get hit (outside of the stock answer "they didn't think it was a problem") is because Konami didn't want to possibly endanger sales of Fire Fist and Evilswarm cards in the TCG. Kind of makes you hate them, huh? (Well, if you aren't a Rabbit player that is.) Also, they seem to just really like Rescue Rabbit as a card. Looking back, I should have been much less optimistic about this. My obvious mistake was not considering their obvious monetary incentive in not hitting the card.

PREDICTION #3: "Samurai might get hit."

VERDICT: Painfully wrong. >:(

Okay, now this time I really should have been right. (laughter) Samurai supposedly possess a discard loop in the OCG thanks to Evilswarm Ouroboros and Daigusto Emerald, not to mention the archetype just has stacks of really good cards anyways (Shi En, Smoke Signal, United, Asceticism, Dojo, Magatama, GATEWAY), so what reason do they have not to hit them?

Unless they're planning to release more Samurai cards sometime in the near future, there is no approaching product release I can think of that Samurai would be helping the sale of - except for Hidden Arsenal 7. And if that's the case, then... wow. Just, wow. Konami is really, truly evil. And I'm not kidding! Not only did they NOT hit Samurai, they actually GAVE them something back - and for what? To give people just that little bit of extra incentive to pick up packs of the final Hidden Arsenal set that by all accounts is probably going to fly off the shelves anyways? No way, man. You guys fucking suck. And it's not even on accident - you're doing it on fucking purpose.

PREDICTION #4: "Gishki might get hit (again)."

VERDICT: Somewhat correct. :|

Although Evigishki Mind Augus, who many would consider the main perpetrator of the newest version of "let's not play a real game of yugioh and just use Gishki" was not hit, one very important card in the FTK was hit - One Day of Peace. To be fair, you can still conduct the FTK perfectly fine with only one copy (to the best of my knowledge), but at least the deck did take some form of a hit. Hopefully it won't see too much play going forward.

PREDICTION #5: "Mermails might get hit."

VERDICT: Wrong. :(

This was another case of me being too optimistic. I sincerely thought the deck would take a small hit seeing as the deck has terrorized the OCG for months now, as well as the fact that the Structure Deck and Abyss Rising have been out for kind of a while now (8 months and 7 months in the OCG, respectively). I was expecting maybe a limit to either Diva or Dragoons to start, and then the full impact next format. But NOPE.
It's kind of weird that at the very first YCS after the list dropped, Billy Brake and Jeff Jones debuted their new, more powerful version of the deck. So thanks, Konami.
Thanks for that.

PREDICTION #6: "Fire Fist probably won't get hit."

VERDICT: Unfortunately, correct. :/

This was just a given. Although Tenki should most likely be Limited, nobody really expected it to get hit because this list season coincides with the TCG release of Cosmo Blazer and OCG release of Lord of the Tachyon Galaxy, not to mention releases of Fire King and (eventually) Constellar cards in the TCG. And of course none of the other Fire Fist cards are necessarily broken enough to warrant recognition at this point in time.

PREDICTION #7: "Lavals probably won't get hit."

VERDICT: Unfortunately, correct. :/

Again, Rekindling is a card that needs to be Limited, but Konami won't do that now because it would damage sales of Hidden Arsenal 7 and probably the other million and a half Fire related releases coming out this year. 

PREDICTION #8: "Staple cards might change around a bit."

VERDICT: Correct. :|

Sangan and Solemn Warning could each be considered staple in a way and they did indeed change, but whether or not Warning going to one is more good than bad (or vice versa) is a question that remains to be seen.

PREDICTION #9: "A banned card will probably come back."

VERDICT: Wrong. :(

Nope! Absolutely did not happen. From the general attitude of the list this time around, it looks like Konami only wanted to make tiny maintenance changes here and there, which means no return of a banned card. Kind of sad, but oh well. :/

Well, that's it guys. Hope you enjoyed this little recap, because I know most people who do predictions don't actually go back and check them. So with uniqueness held high, I bid you farewell. Til next time

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